VfB Stuttgart vs Greuther Furth

01 Oct 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

VfB Stuttgart

Greuther Furth

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.5% DRAW 15.2% AWAY 11.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 70.9% 1.37 DRAW 16.8% 5.80 AWAY 12.3% 7.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for VfB Stuttgart relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.5% win probability, compared with 70.9% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

VfB Stuttgart has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

VfB Stuttgart Greuther Furth

Shots 16.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

VfB Stuttgart Greuther Furth

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 6.8

VfB Stuttgart has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

VfB Stuttgart Greuther Furth

The combined recent performance profile favours VfB Stuttgart.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

VfB Stuttgart ↑ +0.04 (+3.1%)

Greuther Furth ↑ +1.95 (+32.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.