Alianza Lima vs Palestino

01 Oct 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Alianza Lima

Palestino

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.9% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 26.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.5% 1.95 DRAW 24.1% 3.93 AWAY 27.4% 3.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Alianza Lima

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alianza Lima Palestino

Shots 21.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 17.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alianza Lima Palestino

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alianza Lima Palestino

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Alianza Lima ↓ -0.05 (-2.5%)

Palestino ↑ +0.35 (+11.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.