CA Lito vs Durazno

30 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

CA Lito

Durazno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.7% DRAW 31.0% AWAY 34.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.3% 2.77 DRAW 30.7% 3.10 AWAY 35.0% 2.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Durazno

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Lito Durazno

Shots 7.5 · On target 1.5 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Durazno, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Lito Durazno

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.5

CA Lito has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Lito Durazno

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

CA Lito ↑ +0.52 (+23.0%)

Durazno ↓ -0.29 (-9.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.