Leones de Rosario Reserves vs CA Lugano Reserves

30 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Leones de Rosario Reserves

CA Lugano Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.7% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 16.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.8% 1.60 DRAW 20.9% 4.65 AWAY 18.3% 5.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Leones de Rosario Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.7% win probability, compared with 60.8% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Leones de Rosario Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leones de Rosario Reserves CA Lugano Reserves

Shots 16.5 · On target 8.3 Shots 10.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Leones de Rosario Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leones de Rosario Reserves CA Lugano Reserves

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 1.8

CA Lugano Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leones de Rosario Reserves CA Lugano Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Leones de Rosario Reserves ↑ +0.03 (+1.8%)

CA Lugano Reserves ↑ +0.55 (+11.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.