Colombia vs Paraguay

03 Oct 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.9 pp

Colombia

Paraguay

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.4% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 15.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.5% 1.80 DRAW 26.3% 3.72 AWAY 19.2% 5.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Colombia clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.4% win probability, compared with 54.5% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Colombia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Colombia Paraguay

Shots 16.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 7.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Colombia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Colombia Paraguay

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Colombia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Colombia Paraguay

The combined recent performance profile favours Colombia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Colombia ↑ +0.13 (+7.7%)

Paraguay ↑ +0.63 (+14.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.