Spain U20 vs Mexico U20

30 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.3 pp

Spain U20

Mexico U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 34.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.2% 2.06 DRAW 23.7% 4.03 AWAY 30.1% 3.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Mexico U20 clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.4% win probability, compared with 30.1% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Mexico U20 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Spain U20 Mexico U20

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 16.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Mexico U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Spain U20 Mexico U20

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Mexico U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Spain U20 Mexico U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Mexico U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Spain U20 ↓ -0.19 (-8.4%)

Mexico U20 ↑ +0.57 (+21.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.