SD Atletico Nacional vs La Familia FC

01 Oct 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

SD Atletico Nacional

La Familia FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.0% DRAW 14.6% AWAY 11.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.2% 1.34 DRAW 16.3% 5.85 AWAY 12.5% 7.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for SD Atletico Nacional relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.0% win probability, compared with 71.2% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: La Familia FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

SD Atletico Nacional La Familia FC

Shots 7.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

SD Atletico Nacional La Familia FC

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 7.0

SD Atletico Nacional has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

SD Atletico Nacional La Familia FC

The combined recent performance profile favours SD Atletico Nacional.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

SD Atletico Nacional ↑ +0.04 (+3.0%)

La Familia FC ↑ +1.10 (+16.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.