Ihud Tzeirey Abu Gosh vs Maccabi Beer Sheva

01 Oct 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Ihud Tzeirey Abu Gosh

Maccabi Beer Sheva

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.7% DRAW 19.6% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.7% 1.62 DRAW 20.2% 4.72 AWAY 21.2% 4.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Maccabi Beer Sheva relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 23.7% win probability, compared with 21.2% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Maccabi Beer Sheva has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ihud Tzeirey Abu Gosh Maccabi Beer Sheva

Shots 3.8 · On target 1.8 Shots 7.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Maccabi Beer Sheva, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ihud Tzeirey Abu Gosh Maccabi Beer Sheva

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 1.5

Maccabi Beer Sheva has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ihud Tzeirey Abu Gosh Maccabi Beer Sheva

The combined recent performance profile favours Maccabi Beer Sheva.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ihud Tzeirey Abu Gosh ↑ +0.05 (+3.4%)

Maccabi Beer Sheva ↑ +0.30 (+7.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.