Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao

02 Oct 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.5 pp

Real Sociedad

Athletic Bilbao

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.9% DRAW 26.4% AWAY 40.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.9% 2.64 DRAW 27.0% 3.62 AWAY 36.2% 2.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Athletic Bilbao clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.7% win probability, compared with 36.2% implied by the market. The 4.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Athletic Bilbao has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao

Shots 14.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 17.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Athletic Bilbao has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao

The combined recent performance profile favours Athletic Bilbao.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Real Sociedad ↑ +0.54 (+25.9%)

Athletic Bilbao ↓ -0.18 (-6.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.