Al-Nasr Salalah vs Samail

01 Oct 2026 · 15:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.6 pp

Al-Nasr Salalah

Samail

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.3% DRAW 18.2% AWAY 15.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.7% 1.55 DRAW 20.2% 4.73 AWAY 18.2% 5.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Al-Nasr Salalah clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.3% win probability, compared with 61.7% implied by the market. The 4.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Al-Nasr Salalah has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al-Nasr Salalah Samail

Shots 10.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 7.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Al-Nasr Salalah, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al-Nasr Salalah Samail

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Al-Nasr Salalah has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al-Nasr Salalah Samail

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Nasr Salalah.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Al-Nasr Salalah ↑ +0.01 (+0.8%)

Samail ↑ +0.50 (+10.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.