Serbia U21 vs Russia U21

02 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Serbia U21

Russia U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.0% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 37.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.37 DRAW 25.4% 3.74 AWAY 34.4% 2.76

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Russia U21 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.2% win probability, compared with 34.4% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Serbia U21

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Serbia U21 Russia U21

Shots 7.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 4.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Serbia U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Serbia U21 Russia U21

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Russia U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Serbia U21 Russia U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Russia U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Serbia U21 ↓ -0.60 (-20.3%)

Russia U21 ↑ +0.46 (+20.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.