Mgarr United (W) vs Swieqi Utd (W)

01 Oct 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Mgarr United (W)

Swieqi Utd (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.1% DRAW 18.3% AWAY 14.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.6% 1.43 DRAW 19.1% 5.00 AWAY 14.3% 6.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Mgarr United (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mgarr United (W) Swieqi Utd (W)

Shots 7.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 2.8 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Mgarr United (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mgarr United (W) Swieqi Utd (W)

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 1.5

Swieqi Utd (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mgarr United (W) Swieqi Utd (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Mgarr United (W) ↓ -0.62 (-30.1%)

Swieqi Utd (W) ↑ +4.05 (+155.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.