Maldives vs Lebanon

01 Oct 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Maldives

Lebanon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 3.2% DRAW 5.0% AWAY 91.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 3.1% 32.11 DRAW 5.7% 17.40 AWAY 91.2% 1.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Maldives

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Maldives Lebanon

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 1.8 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Maldives, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Maldives Lebanon

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 0.8

Lebanon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Maldives Lebanon

The combined recent performance profile favours Lebanon.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Maldives ↓ -1.89 (-5.6%)

Lebanon ↓ -0.03 (-2.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.