Plaza Amador (W) vs UMECIT (W)

01 Oct 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +6.1 pp

Plaza Amador (W)

UMECIT (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.9% DRAW 15.5% AWAY 72.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.5% 6.15 DRAW 18.0% 5.29 AWAY 66.5% 1.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates UMECIT (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.6% win probability, compared with 66.5% implied by the market. The 6.1 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

UMECIT (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Plaza Amador (W) UMECIT (W)

Shots 11.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 20.3 · On target 12.0

Recent attacking output favours UMECIT (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Plaza Amador (W) UMECIT (W)

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 9.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.8

UMECIT (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Plaza Amador (W) UMECIT (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours UMECIT (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Plaza Amador (W) ↑ +0.65 (+11.8%)

UMECIT (W) ↑ +0.01 (+1.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.