Sportivo Italiano Reserves vs Excursionistas Reserves

01 Oct 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Sportivo Italiano Reserves

Excursionistas Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.9% DRAW 28.6% AWAY 39.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.3% 3.20 DRAW 28.5% 3.40 AWAY 41.2% 2.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Excursionistas Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Italiano Reserves Excursionistas Reserves

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Italiano Reserves Excursionistas Reserves

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Sportivo Italiano Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Italiano Reserves Excursionistas Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sportivo Italiano Reserves = (0.0%)

Excursionistas Reserves = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.