Spartax vs Sport Lucena

01 Oct 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Spartax

Sport Lucena

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.1% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 29.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.7% 2.26 DRAW 27.1% 3.55 AWAY 30.1% 3.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Spartax

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Spartax Sport Lucena

Shots 3.0 · On target 1.0 Shots 3.8 · On target 0.0

Recent attacking output favours Spartax, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Spartax Sport Lucena

Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 1.3

Spartax has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Spartax Sport Lucena

The combined recent performance profile favours Spartax.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Spartax ↑ +0.26 (+12.8%)

Sport Lucena ↓ -0.20 (-5.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.