Montpelier FC vs Crumlin United

02 Oct 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Montpelier FC

Crumlin United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.7% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 47.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.2% 3.20 DRAW 23.9% 4.18 AWAY 44.9% 2.22

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Crumlin United

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Montpelier FC Crumlin United

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Montpelier FC Crumlin United

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Crumlin United has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Montpelier FC Crumlin United

The combined recent performance profile favours Crumlin United.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Montpelier FC ↑ +1.00 (+45.5%)

Crumlin United ↓ -0.28 (-11.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.