Sevilla vs Aston Villa

02 Oct 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Sevilla

Aston Villa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.4% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 38.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.1% 2.86 DRAW 26.9% 3.63 AWAY 39.1% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Aston Villa

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sevilla Aston Villa

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 15.3 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Aston Villa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sevilla Aston Villa

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 17.8 · On target allowed 6.5

Sevilla has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sevilla Aston Villa

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sevilla ↑ +0.33 (+13.2%)

Aston Villa ↑ +0.25 (+10.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.