Al Ahli Jeddah (W) vs Al-Nassr Riyadh (W)

02 Oct 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Al Ahli Jeddah (W)

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 5.2% DRAW 8.7% AWAY 86.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 5.8% 16.50 DRAW 10.0% 9.50 AWAY 84.2% 1.13

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Ahli Jeddah (W) Al-Nassr Riyadh (W)

Shots 7.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 14.3 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Al-Nassr Riyadh (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Ahli Jeddah (W) Al-Nassr Riyadh (W)

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 0.3

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Ahli Jeddah (W) Al-Nassr Riyadh (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Nassr Riyadh (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Al Ahli Jeddah (W) ↑ +3.50 (+26.9%)

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) ↓ -0.01 (-0.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.