Comercial Tiete U20 vs Brasilis FC U20

02 Oct 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Comercial Tiete U20

Brasilis FC U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.5% DRAW 17.0% AWAY 8.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.1% 1.34 DRAW 18.7% 5.09 AWAY 10.1% 9.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Comercial Tiete U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.5% win probability, compared with 71.1% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Comercial Tiete U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Comercial Tiete U20 Brasilis FC U20

Shots 12.8 · On target 6.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Comercial Tiete U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Comercial Tiete U20 Brasilis FC U20

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Comercial Tiete U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Comercial Tiete U20 Brasilis FC U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Comercial Tiete U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Comercial Tiete U20 ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

Brasilis FC U20 ↑ +3.15 (+50.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.