Chindia Targoviste vs Petrolul Ploiesti

03 Oct 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Chindia Targoviste

Petrolul Ploiesti

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.8% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 44.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.7% 3.32 DRAW 23.8% 4.00 AWAY 47.5% 2.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Chindia Targoviste relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 31.8% win probability, compared with 28.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Petrolul Ploiesti

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chindia Targoviste Petrolul Ploiesti

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 12.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Petrolul Ploiesti, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chindia Targoviste Petrolul Ploiesti

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Chindia Targoviste has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chindia Targoviste Petrolul Ploiesti

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Chindia Targoviste ↑ +0.42 (+14.5%)

Petrolul Ploiesti ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.