Atletico Morelia UMSNH vs La Piedad Imperial

03 Oct 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Atletico Morelia UMSNH

La Piedad Imperial

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.4% DRAW 21.3% AWAY 22.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.6% 1.68 DRAW 22.0% 4.33 AWAY 21.4% 4.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: La Piedad Imperial

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Morelia UMSNH La Piedad Imperial

Shots 8.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 16.8 · On target 11.3

Recent attacking output favours La Piedad Imperial, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Morelia UMSNH La Piedad Imperial

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 8.0

Atletico Morelia UMSNH has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Morelia UMSNH La Piedad Imperial

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atletico Morelia UMSNH = (0.0%)

La Piedad Imperial = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.