Monaco vs Pisa

03 Oct 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Monaco

Pisa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.9% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 19.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.1% 1.68 DRAW 23.4% 4.17 AWAY 18.5% 5.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Pisa has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Monaco Pisa

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Pisa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Monaco Pisa

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Monaco Pisa

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Monaco ↓ 0.00 (-0.2%)

Pisa ↑ +0.31 (+6.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.